Giants eye first place as they continue series in Arizona

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -Runs were hard to come by in Monday's opener of a three- game series between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, and another pitcher's duel could be in the works when the two National League West foes square off again tonight at Chase Field.

Neither team scored a run over the first 10 innings of yesterday's clash, with Nate Schierholtz's two-run triple in the top of the 11th breaking the stalemate and lifting the Giants to a 2-0 victory.

Arizona reliever Aaron Heilman (5-7) retired the first two hitters he faced in the 11th, but Aubrey Huff kept the inning alive for San Francisco with a single. Buster Posey followed with a base hit to set the stage for Schierholtz, who drove a pitch into the gap in right center to plate both runners and end the scoreless deadlock.

"I knew I had to keep it simple and stay up the middle," said Schierholtz. "[Heilman] left a changeup up and I was able to put a good swing on it. It was good to get in there and contribute."

Brian Wilson walked the leadoff man in the bottom of the 11th, but the All- Star closer set down the next three batters to record his 41st save and finish off the Giants' fifth win in their last six contests.

Monday's triumph kept San Francisco one game behind San Diego for first place in the NL West standings, and the team is now 1 1/2 back of Philadelphia for the lead in the league's wild card race after the Phillies split a doubleheader with Florida yesterday.

Following this series, the Giants will visit San Diego for four critical games beginning on Thursday.

Arizona suffered its third straight loss with Monday's result, although manager Kirk Gibson was pleased with his young team's effort.

"It was one of those kind of games, it was very tense and championship-caliber play," Gibson remarked afterward. "I loved it, but ultimately [the Giants] got the job [done]. For our team, this is what we're looking to play for every day."

Neither starting pitcher factored in the final outcome despite both performing extremely well. Arizona's Ian Kennedy yielded just two hits and struck out six over the first eight innings, while Giants youngster Madison Bumgarner fanned seven Diamondbacks and allowed five hits over 7 1/3 shutout frames.

With San Francisco sending two-time NL Cy Young Award recipient Tim Lincecum to the mound and the Diamondbacks countering with impressive rookie Barry Enright, scoring could be scarce again tonight.

Lincecum has really struggled over the second half of this season, but the 2010 All-Star was able to reclaim his usual outstanding form in last Wednesday's game against Colorado. The hard-throwing righty limited the Rockies to one run and struck out nine over eight innings to register a long- awaited 12th victory of the season.

The 26-year-old had lost five straight starts prior to Wednesday's breakthrough and posted an uncharacteristically bad 7.62 earned run average over that frustrating winless stretch. One of those setbacks came against Arizona on August 27, with Lincecum being reached for four runs and issuing four walks in six innings.

That defeat was only the second for Lincecum in seven career decisions against the Diamondbacks, and the San Francisco ace has recorded a strong 2.61 ERA over 12 starts in this series. In his most recent visit to Chase Field, he surrendered just two runs in an eight-inning no-decision on July 25.

Enright has been very consistent since joining the Arizona rotation in late June, with the 24-year-old having compiled a 6-2 record along with an outstanding 2.45 ERA over his first 12 major league starts. The right-hander enters tonight's tilt having won three consecutive assignments and outpitching some of the NL's top hurlers along the way.

After firing 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball to best Colorado and ace Ubaldo Jimenez on August 21, Enright scattered six hits over seven shutout frames to win a head-to-head matchup with Lincecum six days later. He then registered his fifth straight winning decision by holding the slumping Padres to two runs over seven innings last Wednesday at Chase Field.

Enright also opposed Lincecum in that July 25 meeting in Phoenix and received a no-decision as well after allowing two runs in six innings. The Pepperdine product has been tough at home this year, bringing a 4-2 record and a 2.64 ERA over seven Chase Field starts into tonight's game.

Monday's victory was the Giants' fifth in a row as the visitor in this series, having swept a four-game set between these clubs in Phoenix back in July. San Francisco has prevailed in nine of 13 overall bouts with the Diamondbacks this season as well.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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